Channeling Nostradamus II   6 comments

My predictions for today’s election (this in no wise is representative of my voting, just throwing out my guess as to how things will go):

Obama wins the Presidency in a major landslide with 375 electoral votes.  538 gives this a 28.26% chance of happening, but this is using standard traditional analysis of voting trends by demographic.  I honestly think that the 18-30 crowd (who are typically significantly under-represented in the electorate) are actually going to vote this time around.  Nate Silver is actually prediction 348.6 electoral votes for Obama, with an overall 98.9% chance of winning the election.

In California:

  • 1A fails to pass
  • 2 fails to pass
  • 3 fails to pass
  • 4 fails to pass
  • 5 fails to pass
  • 6 fails to pass
  • 7 fails to pass
  • 8 fails to pass
  • 9 fails to pass
  • 10 fails to pass
  • 11 passes
  • 12 passes
  • R fails to pass

And in Pasadena:

  • TT fails to pass

I’m not entirely confident in my calls for 2, 6, 9, 11, and TT.  I feel pretty good about my guess on all of the others.

[edited to add] Also, all of Ed Felten’s predictions will come to pass, and we’ll be hearing about them for weeks.


Posted November 4, 2008 by padraic2112 in noise, politics

6 responses to “Channeling Nostradamus II

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  1. I am nervous. I am nervous. I am nervous. I am nervous.

  2. Obama’d better win. TT better pass. 4 and 8 better fail. The rest I can give or take with varying levels of meh.

  3. We’re gonna get all 3! Triumvirate!

  4. Irony. 8 is exit polling as highly unpopular with black voters. Throws the urban landslide against 8 in doubt?

  5. Error… pro 8.

  6. Pingback: Wednesday, November 5th, 2008 - Best Day « Pat’s Daily Grind

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